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Transparency and Ambiguity in Central Bank Safety Net Operations

To mitigate the risks of contagion from problems arising in the banking sector, many countries operate some form of banking sector safety net. Such safety nets generally involve a judicious mixture of transparency and ambiguity. This ambiguity may be important to counter moral hazard effects but may lead to excessive forbearance in the face of banking problems. While the scope for ambiguity has been declining, some ambiguity in the handling of individual institutions remains. In any case, ex post transparency is essential for reviewing the propriety of any assistance and preserving the authorities’ future reputation and policy credibility.

To mitigate the risks of contagion from problems arising in the banking sector, many countries operate some form of banking sector safety net.

Issues in Central Bank Finance and Independence

Conventional economic policy models focus only on selected elements of the central bank balance sheet, in particular monetary liabilities and sometimes foreign reserves. The canonical model of an "independent" central bank assumes that it chooses money (or an interest rate), unconstrained by a need to generate seignorage for itself or government. While a long line of literature has emphasized the dangers of fiscal dominance influencing the conduct of monetary policy the idea that an independent central bank could be constrained in achieving its policy objectives by its own balance sheet situation is a relatively novel idea considered in this paper. If one accepts this potential constraint as a valid concern, the financial strength of the central bank as a stand alone entity becomes highly relevant for ascertaining monetary policy credibility. We consider several strands of evidence that clearly indicate fiscal backing for central banks cannot be assumed and hence financial independence is relevant to operational independence. First we examine 135 central bank laws to illustrate the variety of legal approaches adopted with respect to central bank financial independence. Second, we examine the same data set with regard to central bank recapitalization provisions to show that even in cases where the treasury is nominally responsible for maintaining the central bank financially strong, it may do so in purely a cosmetic fashion. Third, we show that, in actual practice, treasuries have frequently not provided central banks with genuine financial support on a timely basis leaving them excessively reliant on seignorage to finance their operations and/or forcing them to abandon policy objectives.

Conventional economic policy models focus only on selected elements of the central bank balance sheet, in particular monetary liabilities and sometimes foreign reserves.

Financial Reforms in Sudan: Streamlining Bank Intermediation

The paper reviews the experience of financial reforms in Sudan with a view to assessing their macroeconomic impact and to shedding light on the question why such reforms have not yet brought about visible improvements in financial intermediation. The paper concludes that regardless of the progress achieved in recent years, deficiencies in the reform design, institutional weaknesses, shallow financial markets, shortcomings of the Islamic mode of finance, and strong seasonality remain key factors that constrain financial intermediation. Additional efforts, in particular in bank restructuring, credit instrument design, monetary policy management, and prudential regulation are needed to address the systemic problems of the financial sector and to make it capable of supporting private sector growth.

Central Bank Financial Strength and Policy Performance

An Econometric Evaluation

The financial health of central banks and its relation to policy outcomes has recently been recognized as an important policy issue. While case study evidence clearly indicates that weak central bank finances can hamper effective policy implementation, the question of whether central bank financial strength influences policy performance remains controversial. This is due, in part, to a lack of econometric evidence. The paper presents a first step toward filling this gap, by providing a quantitative evaluation of the relationship between measures of central bank financial strength and policy performance, in particular inflation. The paper''s major finding is that there indeed is a negative relationship between central bank financial strength and inflation outcomes. This relationship appears to be robust to the choice of alternative country samples, control variables, estimation strategies, and conceptualizations of central bank financial strength.

This is due, in part, to a lack of econometric evidence.

Government Cash Management: Relationship between the Treasury and the Central Bank

This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following main issues: •Interaction between treasury cash management and monetary policy operations within the wider context of the respective economic responsibilities of the ministry of finance and the central bank. •Institutional arrangements for an effective relationship between the treasury and the central bank. •Contractual arrangements between the treasury and the central bank for the provision of banking and other services. This document will be particularly relevant to developing countries that are reforming cash management operations or contemplating more active cash management; or where there are operational policy differences between the treasury and the central bank.

This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following main issues: •Interaction between treasury cash management and monetary policy operations within the wider context of the respective economic responsibilities of the ministry of ...

Das House-Kapital

A Long Term Housing & Macro Model

There are, by now, several long term, time series data sets on important housing & macro variables, such as land prices, house prices, and the housing wealth-to-income ratio. However, an appropriate theory that can be employed to think about such data and associated research questions has been lacking. We present a new housing & macro model that is designed specifically to analyze the long term. As an illustrative application, we demonstrate that the calibrated model replicates, with remarkable accuracy, the historical evolution of housing wealth (relative to income) after World War II and suggests a further considerable increase in the future. The model also accounts for the close connection of house prices to land prices in the data. We also compare our framework to the canonical housing & macro model, typically employed to analyze business cycles, and highlight the main differences.

There are, by now, several long term, time series data sets on important housing & macro variables, such as land prices, house prices, and the housing wealth-to-income ratio.

A Review of Capital Budgeting Practices

A key challenge in government budgeting is to define an appropriate balance between current and capital expenditures. Budgeting for government capital investment also remains not well-integrated into the formal budget preparation process in many countries. This paper aims to provide an overview of past and current budgeting practices for public investment. The study will also provide a comparison between the budget practices between low-income countries and developed countries and make a series of recommendations for how to ensure efficient integration of capital planning and budget management in low-income countries.

A key challenge in government budgeting is to define an appropriate balance between current and capital expenditures.

Oil Prices and Bank Profitability

Evidence From Major Oil-Exporting Countries in the Middle East and North Africa

This paper analyzes the relationship between oil price shocks and bank profitability. Using data on 145 banks in 11 oil-exporting MENA countries for 1994-2008, we test hypotheses of direct and indirect effects of oil price shocks on bank profitability. Our results indicate that oil price shocks have indirect effect on bank profitability, channeled through country-specific macroeconomic and institutional variables, while the direct effect is insignificant. Investment banks appear to be the most affected ones compared to Islamic and commercial banks. Our findings highlight systemic implications of oil price shocks on bank performance and underscore their importance for macroprudential regulation purposes in MENA countries.

The empirical academic literature on differences in commercial and Islamic
banks is very scarce and mainly touches upon financial stability (Cihák and
Hesse, 2008) and does not examine their relationship with oil—the main revenue
source for government in these oil-exporting countries. Conceptually, since
Islamic banks often tend to fund themselves with sukuk besides Shariah
compliant deposits, and higher oil prices are associated with higher liquidity and
therefore deposits ...

The Behavior of Conventional and Islamic Bank Deposit Returns in Malaysia and Turkey

This paper examines the empirical behavior of conventional bank deposit rates and the rate of return on retail Islamic profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) investment accounts in Malaysia and Turkey, using monthly data from January 1997 to August 2010. The analysis shows that conventional bank deposit rates and PLS returns exhibit long-run cointegration and the time-varying volatility of conventional bank deposit rates and PLS returns is correlated and is statistically significant. The pairwise and multivariate causality tests show that conventional bank deposit rates Granger cause returns on PLS accounts. These findings have policy implications in terms of price stability and financial stability.

The analysis is based on monthly average data on conventional and Islamic
deposit rates in Malaysia and Turkey from January 1997 to August 2010.6
Wellestablished dual banking systems in Malaysia and Turkey provide the basis
for this study.7 The share of Islamic banks in banking system assets in Malaysia
increased from 7 percent in 2000 to over 20 percent in 2010. In Turkey, the share
of Islamic banks (known as “participation banks”) grew from 2.1 percent in 2000
to 4.3 ...

An Integrated Framework for Financial Positions and Flowson a From-Whom-To-Whom Basis

Concepts, Status, and Prospects

The global crisis of 2008 highlighted the need to understand financial interconnectedness among the various sectors of an economy and between them and their counterparties in the rest of the world. However, application of this kind of analysis has been hampered by the lack of adequate data. This paper sets the background for promoting internationally coordinated efforts for compiling and disseminating data on sectoral financial positions and flows on a from-whom-to-whom basis within the framework of the System of National Accounts. It draws on actual experiences in compiling these kinds of data and provides guidelines for their development in the future.

As of 201 l, 32 countries report data for the monetary authorities, depository
corporations (DCs) and other financial corporations (OFCs). Reports covering
only the monetary authorities and the DCs are received from 126 countries (
including ...